Editor’s Note: Art Jonak is an investment analyst with both a wide and deep synthesis approach to research data. His commentary threads on titans like Netflix, Amazon and Facebook are a minor legend for their insight, detail and clarity. He also navigates venture funding, and emerging sector data, in a narrative, often with striking visualization, that reveals trends in their formation long before they are visible. It should not need to be said for investment disclosure that Art is holding crypto assets himself. He is obviously making a case of why everyone should.

Here is Art’s 2019 message thread for investing in Bitcoin, in particular. In our eyes, it slams the case for why every single portfolio on the planet should be holding Bitcoin, and treated as a portfolio asset class.

Here’s one case for why some should consider adding Bitcoin to their investment portfolio:

* Bitcoin is a non-correlated asset — This is the holy grail of any portfolio. Bitcoin’s current 180 day correlation to the S&P 500 is 0 and the correlation to the dollar index is near zero as well. Investing in non-correlated assets should reduce the risk and increase the returns of a portfolio according to modern portfolio theory.

* Bitcoin has an asymmetric return profile — There is much more upside than downside in owning the asset. The downside (loss of capital) is capped at the total amount of capital invested, yet the upside is ~100X+ (if Bitcoin only becomes gold equivalent).

The modern portfolio theory argument for investing in Bitcoin is quite strong. But how has theory played out in practice?

Bitcoin has been the best performing asset over the last 10 years. It has experienced a 1,300,000X+ increase in value from $0.003 to ~$4,000 today. It has beat the S&P 500 for the last 10 years, the last 5 years, and the last 2 years. As a fixed supply asset, I believe Bitcoin will continue to outperform traditional assets in the future as demand continues to increase too.

Although I believe in Bitcoin’s future outlook, most people should not put significant funds at risk in this investment opportunity. It is risky and speculative. They could lose 100% of the money that they invest. For that reason, each person needs to evaluate their current situation, their goals, and the amount of capital they would be willing to lose.

If the thesis plays out how many smart people anticipate though, an investment of 100 basis points or less would materially change the performance of your portfolio fund, which ultimately changes the quality of life you will live when you retire. Most institutions have permanent, long-term capital which allows them to stomach more volatility than most investors.

For example, an investment of 1% of assets at $4,000 BTC price would yield a 25% increase in your portfolio total assets if Bitcoin reached $100,000. If you decided to invest 0.1% of assets, the same price appreciation would increase total assets by 2.5%.
However, the exciting part is that many people believe Bitcoin will not only reach $100,000 one day, but rather be worth $1,000,000+. If that comes to fruition, a 0.1% investment today could lead to the same 25% increase in total assets for your portfolio. These types of trade-offs are the definition of an asymmetric return profile.

And still, most people’s portfolios have 0% exposure to Bitcoin and crypto. Something to consider as we head into 2019.