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  • Bitcoin is trapped in a trading range defined by the 200-week simple moving average and the 200- week exponential moving average, currently at $3,404 and $4,106, respectively. Therefore, the outlook as per the weekly chart is neutral.
  • A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $4,106 would confirm a longer-term bearish-to-bullish trend change and could fuel a rally toward $5,000.
  • A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) below $3,404 could revive the sell-off from November highs above $6,500 and allow a drop to levels below $3,000.
  • The odds of a drop to the lower edge of the trading range would improve if BTC invalidates a bullish candlestick pattern created on Feb. 27 with a move below $3,658.

Bitcoin is trapped in a key trading range defined by the 200-week simple moving average and the 200- week exponential moving average, currently at $3,404 and $4,106, respectively

The cryptocurrency needs a break above the upper edge needed to confirm a longer-term bull reversal. Conversely, a move below the lower bound of the range could revive the bear market.

Prices fell below the 200-week EMA in the third week of November, bolstering the bearish view put forward by the high-volume breach of the crucial support at $6,000 on Nov. 14.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of…